Sun. May 19th, 2024


Netflix sign on its Los Angeles Headquarters building.

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Thesis

In my previous article about Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) I rated the stock as a strong buy citing that its password-sharing crackdown efforts as well as the inclusion of an ads-enabled tier, will

TABLE OF ASSUMPTIONS
(Current data)
Assumptions Part 1
Equity Market Value 272,670.00
Debt Value 16,973.40
Cost of Debt 4.12%
Tax Rate 12.85%
10y Treasury 4.345%
Beta 1.04
Market Return 10.50%
Cost of Equity 10.75%
Assumptions Part 2
CapEx 348.60
Capex Margin 1.03%
Net Income 5,408.00
Interest 699.80
Tax 797.40
D&A 356.90
Ebitda 7,262.10
D&A Margin 1.06%
Interest Expense Margin 2.08%
Revenue 33,723.0

Netflix’s Core Revenue Advertisements Password Cracking
2022 31,615.8
2023 31,172.7 2,550.3
2024 33,136.6 4,945.0 133.2
2025 35,224.2 7,339.8 266.3
2026 37,443.3 9,734.5 399.5
2027 39,802.2 12,129.3 532.6
2028 42,309.8 14,524.0 665.8
2029 44,975.3 16,918.8 799.0

Net Income without Password-Cracking & Ads
2023 3,472.6
2024 3,691.4
2025 3,924.0
2026 4,171.2
2027 4,434.0
2028 4,713.3
2029 5,010.2

Revenue Net Income Plus Taxes Plus D&A Plus Interest
2024 $38,214.8 $8,769.61 $9,896.51 $10,300.95 $11,000.75
2025 $42,830.3 $11,549.45 $13,033.56 $13,438.00 $14,118.43
2026 $47,577.3 $14,324.03 $16,164.68 $16,668.21 $17,329.80
2027 $52,464.2 $17,114.21 $19,313.40 $19,868.64 $20,511.91
2028 $57,499.6 $19,920.95 $22,480.81 $23,089.34 $23,714.81
2029 $62,693.0 $22,745.30 $25,668.10 $26,331.60 $26,939.74
^Final EBITA^



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